The militants of PMC "Wagner" will not be able to withdraw from the fortress city of Bakhmut without loss, as they are constantly in direct contact with the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
At the same time, as stated in the ISW report, during the withdrawal, the "Wagnerites" will interfere with the units of the Russian Defense Ministry to prepare for the planned Ukrainian counteroffensive.
According to analysts, the PMC is unlikely to be able to organize a proper defense, or consolidate recent gains in Bakhmut, sufficient to prevent counterattacks by the Defense Forces. Now the Ukrainian defenders are in Khromovo and Ivanovskoye, and are also fighting with the interventionists in Bakhmut and its environs. At the same time, Ukrainian artillery strikes the occupying forces in all positions.
According to experts, leaving in close contact with the enemy is an extremely difficult task, which the Wagnerites are unlikely to cope with. They demonstrated poor coordination with the troops and military command of the Russian Federation, which may interfere with the rotation.
ISW analysts are confident that the Russian military command is unlikely to gather enough forces to replace the PMC militants in Bakhmut and at the same time hold their flanks without redeploying Russian troops from other areas.