Ukraine's June 1 attack on Russian military airfields signals that the long-stalled war is entering a dangerous phase. According to The Wall Street Journal, both sides appear set to escalate, and the prospects for a U.S.-brokered peace deal appear out of reach.
"Instead of cooling off, the grueling 40-month war appears to be heating up — with minimal resistance from Trump," the publication notes.
The question is whether the escalating attacks will prompt the U.S. administration to engage more deeply in the peace process — or whether it will back down, as U.S. officials have repeatedly threatened to do. Although some analysts say Trump's pledge to abandon the war is unrealistic.
"Withdrawal would prolong the fighting. It would be an admission of failure," said former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin still appears to be counting on Trump having no desire to get more involved in Ukraine and would rather withdraw from the conflict than impose additional sanctions or resume large-scale U.S. arms sales to Ukraine, the WSJ notes.
But if the Trump administration has a strategy beyond calling on Putin to end the fighting in exchange for territorial concessions and other incentives, it has yet to clearly state it, the WSJ notes:
"Trump has not sought to increase economic and military pressure on Russia. And he has not been actively involved in Ukraine's defense planning, including coordinating future weapons needs. He has been unusually silent about Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian bases. Zelensky told reporters Monday that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has proposed a four-way summit later this month that would include himself, Trump, Putin, and the Ukrainian leader. But the administration has not said whether Trump would attend."
The publication predicts that without international pressure, fighting could even intensify this summer as the Kremlin seeks to shift the front lines.
Meanwhile, a brief meeting between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul on June 2 led to progress on humanitarian issues but did not advance the sides toward a ceasefire. In any case, the Kremlin's proposal, reported by Russian state media, was little different from the maximalist demands Moscow had been making for the past several months: formal recognition of the four disputed Ukrainian territories as part of Russia, the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from those areas, and Kiev's adherence to a policy of neutrality that would prevent it from joining the European Union or NATO:
"It was another sign that Russia is determined to continue the war it started. Ukraine, meanwhile, will continue to take bold steps in its defense."