Forecast Boosts Ukrainian Corn Production and Export
The USDA has recently updated its projections for the balance of major agricultural crops in Ukraine for the marketing year 2023/2024. According to the revised forecasts, Ukraine's corn production is increased by 1.5 million tons to 29.5 million tons, and corn exports are raised by 0.5 million tons to 20 million tons. Additionally, the ministry anticipates unchanged wheat production in Ukraine, with exports expected to grow by 1 million tons, reaching 12 million tons. Global Wheat Forecasts Show Supply Increase and Consumption Decrease
The world wheat forecast for the 2023/2024 marketing year predicts an increase in supply and ending stocks, accompanied by a decrease in consumption and trade volumes. The forecast suggests a 0.6 million ton increase in supply to over 1.051 million tons, largely due to higher initial stocks compensating for the reduction in global production.
Worldwide Wheat Production and Trade Adjustments
Global wheat production forecast for 2023/2024 is reduced by 1.5 million tons to 782 million tons, attributed to production cuts in various countries, including India, Argentina, Kazakhstan, the United Kingdom, and Brazil. Trade forecast is also decreased by 1.3 million tons to 205 million tons, primarily due to reduced exports from Argentina and India, partly offset by increased exports from Ukraine. Global Corn Market Outlook
The updated forecasts indicate growth in production, consumption, trade volumes, and ending stocks in the global corn market for the 2023/2024 marketing year. World corn production is projected to increase by 6.3 million tons to 1,220.8 million tons, with significant contributions from the United States, Ukraine, Myanmar, and Paraguay. Partially offsetting this increase are reductions in corn production in Mexico, Egypt, and Indonesia.
Changes in Global Corn Trade and Reserves
Global corn trade forecast for 2023/2024 has increased by 3.4 million tons to 199.6 million tons, with notable contributions from increased exports by the United States, Turkey, Ukraine, and Papua New Guinea. The forecast for ending corn stocks has risen by 2.6 million tons to 315 million tons, mainly due to increased reserves in the United States, Ukraine, Paraguay, and China, partially offset by reductions in Iran.
Ukrainian Grain Association's Predictions
The Ukrainian Grain Association predicts a harvest of 81.6 million tons of grains and oilseeds in Ukraine for 2023. As of November 10, 2023, Ukraine has already harvested 71.5 million tons, including 22.409 million tons of wheat and 21.218 million tons of corn.
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