Russia would need 89 years to conquer Ukraine at its current rate of advance, - The Economist
Date: 2025-07-10 Author: Кирило Загоруйко Categories: WAR
Even at the faster rate of advance that has been observed over the past 30 days, the occupiers would need 89 years to conquer all of Ukraine. It would take the Russians until February 2029 to capture parts of the four regions that are under Ukrainian control. This is what The Economist writes.
"But Putin does not seem to have despaired. His armed forces are recruiting 10,000-15,000 more troops per month than Ukraine, luring Russians with generous signing bonuses and salaries rather than relying on conscription, which is currently causing unrest in Ukraine," the article says.
It is noted that to track the war in Ukraine, The Economist journalists use data from a NASA program that was originally developed to monitor forest fires.
In particular, thanks to this data, it can be seen that intense fighting continues over the Dnieper River in the Kherson region.
"This is largely due to Russian drone strikes on agricultural land, rather than serious attempts to advance. There is talk of a Russian airborne assault, but it has not yet happened," the article adds.
In turn, in the north, a 50,000-strong Russian army is attacking Sumy. The Economist data indicates artillery fire and explosions along the northern defensive lines of the city. Ukraine is significantly inferior in terms of troops, but officials assure that the front is holding.
"In the northeast, Russia is advancing on Borovaya and Seversk - tactical checkpoints on the way to Ukraine's last fortifications in the Donbas. Russia's main efforts are concentrated further south. Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka - two important logistical hubs of Ukraine - are being subjected to powerful blows by Vladimir Putin's army. The fate of the eastern front may depend on whether they hold their positions," the publication emphasizes.
The article recalls that there is no official data on the losses of both sides yet, but The Economist's daily monitoring of the war can suggest approximate data.
"As of July 9, our tracker shows that Russia's casualties since the start of the war are between 900,000 and 1.3 million, including around 190,000-350,000 fatalities. This updates estimates from other sources, which as of late June put the total at over 1 million. Our figures suggest that around 31,000 Russians may have died during the summer offensive that began on May 1," the publication notes.
A catalog of known dead and missing from the UALosses website, however, suggests that between 73,000 and 140,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died since the start of the full-scale invasion.
"The increase in Russian fatalities is a result of military action on the ground. Our satellite data suggests that the current pace of Russian advance is among the fastest in the last two years (albeit from a very low level)," the article says.
