They are intensifying the offensive: ISW explained why the occupiers want to seize the initiative
Date: 2023-12-10 Author: Кирило Загоруйко Categories: WAR
The Russian occupiers, in difficult weather conditions, are intensifying their offensive and trying to seize the initiative before the presidential elections in the Russian Federation, while the Ukrainian Armed Forces are consolidating their positions.
This was reported by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The review said Russian forces were likely to launch offensive operations on many sectors of the front during the worst weather conditions in an attempt to seize and maintain the initiative before Russia's presidential elections, which are scheduled for March 2024.
The review recalls that Russian troops are conducting offensive operations along most of the front line: along the border of the Kharkov and Luhansk regions, near Bakhmut and in the direction of Avdievka, and are also carrying out continuous ground attacks in the west of the Zaporozhye region.
The pace of fighting along the entire front line is broadly in line with ISW assessments that Russian forces have been trying to regain the initiative on the battlefield since at least mid-November.
Analysts noted that the fact that the occupiers began trying to seize the initiative and carry out offensive operations in early to mid-November, without waiting for frost to set in, indicates that they are under pressure.
Experts noted that it is difficult to say whether current Russian efforts will create the conditions for them to achieve operationally significant successes in the near future.
At the same time, according to analysts, Russian troops are not accumulating unused reserves in preparation for larger winter operations.
The review says that official statements by the Ukrainian military also indicate that Russian troops managed to seize the initiative along the border of the Kharkiv and Lugansk regions, near Bakhmut and along the Avdievka-Donetsk direction, while Ukrainian troops retain the initiative in key areas of southern Ukraine, as reported evidenced by constant Ukrainian counterattacks in the west of the Zaporozhye region and a stable, larger than usual, Ukrainian presence on the eastern shore of the Kherson region.
“Ukrainian forces, on the contrary, appear to be using this period of difficult weather conditions and ongoing Russian offensive operations to create and strengthen defensive positions on those sectors of the front where they are not conducting counter-offensive operations, thus preserving manpower and resources for future offensives,” - analysts noted.
