Can the Russian Federation continue massive attacks like on December 29: ISW gave an answer
Date: 2023-12-30 Author: Кирило Загоруйко Categories: WAR
Current stocks of missiles and drones, as well as the pace of production, do not allow Russia to launch regular large-scale strikes on Ukraine, such as on December 29.
At the same time, as ISW analysts note, the enemy may more consistently attack the country with Shahed-type strike UAVs. The experts also cited statistics on the production of new missiles by the Russian Federation, which were announced on November 6 by Vadim Skibitsky, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense.
In particular, in October the Russians produced 115 long-range precision missiles:
30 Iskander-M cruise missiles;
12 Iskander-K cruise missiles;
20 Caliber cruise missiles;
40 X-101 cruise missiles;
9 Kh-32 cruise missiles;
4 aeroballistic missiles "Dagger".
As of November, the invaders had a total of 870 high-precision operational-strategic and strategic missiles in reserve, of which 285 units were manufactured in August-November.
Although Ukrainian officials recently said that the Russian Armed Forces have partially renewed their own cruise missile stockpiles, Skibitsky's statements regarding the latest total Russian missile reserves and monthly production rates suggest that the Russian military is unable to withstand repeated large-scale missile strikes like the 29 attack. December. In particular, during a large-scale attack, the aggressor fired five Kinzhal missiles at Ukraine - this is exactly how many systems of this type the Russian Federation produces monthly,” analysts explain.
At the same time, according to ISW, Russia is capable of producing its own Shahed-136/131 drones at a much higher rate. However, this is only possible if the production of these devices is created and expanded in the Alabuz special economic zone in the Republic of Tatarstan.
The Institute of Science and International Security reported on November 13 that even after a month-long delay in production, the Alabuga plant plans to produce 1,400 Shahed-136 drones between February and October 2023. And by September 2025 - 6,000 drones of this type.
“Thus, Russian forces will likely be able to launch more consistent attacks with missiles than missiles, as Ukrainian officials have previously noted,” ISW notes.
