ISW assessed whether the Ukrainian Armed Forces could stop the Russian offensive near Avdiivka
Date: 2024-02-19 Author: Кирило Загоруйко Categories: WAR
Ukrainian troops will likely be able to create new defensive lines near Avdiivka to stop the Russian offensive on this part of the front.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, on February 18, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the capture of Avdeevka by units of the Central Group of Occupation Forces. They added that they had advanced 8.6 kilometers into Ukraine and that the Russians were continuing offensive operations to capture additional territory in the Donetsk region.
According to Russian military bloggers, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lack sufficiently prepared defensive positions west of Avdievka. This will supposedly allow the invaders to advance further into the western part of the Donetsk region in conditions of “panic” and “disorganization” in the Defense Forces after leaving the city.
"ISW has not yet seen video footage of the disorderly withdrawal of Ukrainian troops that would corroborate these Russian claims. The Institute expects to see such video footage if there is a mass withdrawal, taking into account the usual practice of Russian media having access to such material," - added to the report.
At the same time, one milibloger from the Russian Federation believes that a large-scale collapse of the Avdiivka Front is “unlikely”, because Ukrainian troops are retreating to previously prepared defensive lines.
The ISW report also notes that the invaders, who suffered significant losses in personnel and equipment in capturing the city, will likely reach the climax of the offensive when they encounter relatively fresh Ukrainian units who will occupy prepared defensive positions.
