US intelligence says war between Israel and Hezbollah is approaching - Politico
Date: 2024-06-28 Author: Кирило Загоруйко Categories: WORLD
A large-scale confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah could break out in the next few years if Jerusalem and Hamas fail to reach a ceasefire in Gaza. This is evidenced by American intelligence data, writes Politico.
American officials are trying to convince both sides of the need to de-escalate. And this task would be much easier if a ceasefire was established in Gaza, the publication writes. But the agreement is under intense negotiations, and US officials are not confident that Israel and Hamas will agree to the proposed agreement in the near future.
Meanwhile, the Israel Defense Forces and Hezbollah have drawn up battle plans and are trying to purchase additional weapons, two senior U.S. officials said.
Both sides have publicly said they do not want war, but U.S. officials increasingly believe intense fighting is likely to break out despite efforts to prevent it. According to another source, the risk of such a war is now higher than at any time in recent weeks.
"A war between Israel and Hezbollah could ignite a conflict that would force the US to help defend Jerusalem and push the Biden administration to intervene deeper in a region it has spent years trying to leave behind. It also threatens another humanitarian disaster, a blow to the humanitarian community at a time when when it is already on the verge of exhaustion and is trying to cope with the crisis in the Gaza Strip,” the publication writes.
American intelligence offers somewhat more conservative estimates than those coming from Europe. Some European countries have estimated that war between Israel and Hezbollah could break out in a matter of days. Many of them advised their citizens to leave Lebanon.
Canada is also preparing to evacuate thousands of people from the country. At the same time, the US State Department on Thursday issued an advisory to US citizens, urging them to "strongly reconsider" travel to Lebanon.
The two senior officials stressed it was unclear exactly when war might break out, but noted that Israel was trying to quickly rebuild its stockpiles and military capabilities.
Despite efforts to broker a ceasefire, U.S. officials have said escalating tensions on the Israeli border and the lack of any significant progress in ceasefire talks are leading to war.
"The logic of Nasrallah (Hezbollah leader - ed.) ... is that all this is connected with Gaza, and until there is a ceasefire in Gaza, the shelling of Israel will not stop. We, frankly speaking, completely reject this logic," – emphasized a senior Biden administration official.
U.S. officials told Politico that intelligence indicates that a catalyst for war—such as a major attack by either side—could likely occur without warning.
