Since the start of the full-scale war, Ukraine "has developed - and continues to develop - its strike capability using a range of different systems" and has achieved significant results.
"Since 2022, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have demonstrated the ability to field and use highly accurate long-range strike systems against the Russians. This has affected their war strategy. It has also affected Ukraine's ability to project the image of a capable nation that will not inevitably be defeated by Russia. The Ukrainians seek to use strike operations in conjunction with land operations and diplomacy to inflict disproportionate costs on Russia and convince Putin that he cannot succeed in Ukraine," Australian military analyst, retired Major General Mick Ryan, notes in his analysis in a series of tweets.
He analyzed the main capabilities and challenges of Ukraine's "long-range strike complex." This includes air, sea, and strike UAVs, as well as foreign long-range systems - Storm Shadow, SCALP, and ATACM. In addition, Ukraine benefits from the use of intelligence from allies and other sources, including members of the resistance movement in the Russian Federation and the occupied territories.
Ryan separately notes the ability of Ukrainian soldiers to study and adapt new equipment and tactics for their own benefit. In his opinion, Ukraine's strike complex has four goals:
- supporting the achievements of operational and tactical activities;
- expanding the number of dilemmas and threats for Russia in order to force it to share its defense capability and scarce military resources;
- economic warfare against Russia to reduce the country's energy and industrial potential;
- demonstrating to the Russians that the war is not going according to plan, and proving to the West that Ukraine can continue to resist the invasion, despite Russian propaganda claims to the contrary.
The analyst explains that all of these components should influence the "Russian center of gravity in this war" - the will of Putin and his government regarding the continuation of the war. Ryan believes that Ukraine has achieved amazing results in the last 28 months.
"This strike complex played an important role in Ukraine's military strategy until 2024 and will play it again in 2025," he concludes.
In conclusion, he also commented on Ukraine's latest strike on a Russian Tu-22M3 aircraft at the Olenya airfield on the Kola Peninsula. The analyst called it "one of the longest-range strategic strikes" by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.