What will happen to prices in Ukraine: experts' forecast for autumn
Date: 2024-08-29 Author: Nazar Litvin Categories: ECONOMY
According to the State Statistics Service, zero inflation was recorded in Ukraine in July, and in annual terms, inflation accelerated to 5.4%.
Doctor of Economic Sciences Alexey Plotnikov believes that prices will rise as early as August. "I think that inflation will not be zero either in August or in the following months.
There will be a rise in prices
The expert noted that there are general factors of the imbalance of the situation. In particular, enterprises switched to generators due to mass power outages. Because of this, prices will rise due to the fact that electricity was generated by burning fuel, which is much more expensive than traditional sources of electricity supply. Logistics problems and the need to store products in warehouses under special conditions of refrigeration units also affect prices.
"All this leads to the fact that the cost of all these elements increases and, accordingly, the price increases," he said.
According to him, in September and the following months, inflation will increase, especially if the Verkhovna Rada adopts an increase in taxes. "These taxes will come into effect in any case, and this will lead to the fact that the price will increase. New utility rates will come into effect at the end of the year, when the heating season begins. The same applies to excise taxes on fuel, excise taxes on tobacco, and the prospects for increasing excise taxes on sweet carbonated drinks," Plotnikov noted.
Food prices
UKAB analyst Maksim Gopka noted that food prices will most likely begin to rise as early as the end of September, and there are several reasons for this.
"Firstly, logistics costs will grow due to higher fuel prices, and with the onset of cold weather, this same fuel will also be used for an alternative energy source (generators), which will increase the cost of production," he said.
According to him, an increase in prices for raw materials for processing plants is possible. "For example, purchase prices for milk are growing and compared to the same period last year, they have grown by 30%. A similar situation is with grain crops, which on average also grew by 20-30%," the expert added.
Recall that in July, the NBU worsened its inflation forecast for 2024 to 8.5% from 8.2%. The NBU expects that overall inflation in Ukraine will accelerate over the next three quarters, but will remain moderate.
According to the calculations of the Ministry of Economy, consumer prices in Ukraine in December 2024 to December will increase by 7.9%.
Doctor of Economic Sciences Alexey Plotnikov believes that prices will rise as early as August. "I think that inflation will not be zero either in August or in the following months.
There will be a rise in prices
The expert noted that there are general factors of the imbalance of the situation. In particular, enterprises switched to generators due to mass power outages. Because of this, prices will rise due to the fact that electricity was generated by burning fuel, which is much more expensive than traditional sources of electricity supply. Logistics problems and the need to store products in warehouses under special conditions of refrigeration units also affect prices.
"All this leads to the fact that the cost of all these elements increases and, accordingly, the price increases," he said.
According to him, in September and the following months, inflation will increase, especially if the Verkhovna Rada adopts an increase in taxes. "These taxes will come into effect in any case, and this will lead to the fact that the price will increase. New utility rates will come into effect at the end of the year, when the heating season begins. The same applies to excise taxes on fuel, excise taxes on tobacco, and the prospects for increasing excise taxes on sweet carbonated drinks," Plotnikov noted.
Food prices
UKAB analyst Maksim Gopka noted that food prices will most likely begin to rise as early as the end of September, and there are several reasons for this.
"Firstly, logistics costs will grow due to higher fuel prices, and with the onset of cold weather, this same fuel will also be used for an alternative energy source (generators), which will increase the cost of production," he said.
According to him, an increase in prices for raw materials for processing plants is possible. "For example, purchase prices for milk are growing and compared to the same period last year, they have grown by 30%. A similar situation is with grain crops, which on average also grew by 20-30%," the expert added.
Recall that in July, the NBU worsened its inflation forecast for 2024 to 8.5% from 8.2%. The NBU expects that overall inflation in Ukraine will accelerate over the next three quarters, but will remain moderate.
According to the calculations of the Ministry of Economy, consumer prices in Ukraine in December 2024 to December will increase by 7.9%.
