Kursk operation failed to change the course of events on the battlefield, - The Telegraph
Date: 2024-09-05 Author: Кирило Загоруйко Categories: WAR
The Kursk operation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been going on for almost a month. During this time, Ukraine has captured almost 1,300 square kilometers of Russian territory and taken control of Sudzha, an important gas export hub for the Russian Trans-Siberian pipeline. In addition, Ukraine has created a military administration and has enough armored vehicles accumulated in the Sumy region to strengthen its military contingent.
As The Telegraph writes, this is a great achievement. The Ukrainian Armed Forces, faced with poorly trained conscripts and mostly evacuated cities, have shown the defensive weaknesses of Russia and its nuclear threats. At the same time, the Ukrainian troops themselves do not intend to leave this territory, which would lead to a ceasefire and a freeze on the front.
The publication notes that although from a moral point of view, this brazen gambit of Kyiv was successful, the same cannot be said from a military point of view.
"After last year's failed counter-offensive, the Kursk offensive gave Ukrainian troops a much-needed boost of confidence. The feel-good effect was compounded by the impact of the Kursk invasion. Ukrainian forces deployed to Sumy initially believed they were on a defensive mission. Seeing Russia's defensive lines collapse spectacularly was a welcome moment for Ukraine's battle-weary forces, and evoked memories of Russia's disastrous capitulation in Kharkiv in September 2022," The Telegraph notes.
The operation has rallied the Ukrainian military around its commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrsky. Although he has been involved in Ukraine's biggest military successes, he has been seen as a Soviet-style commander with little regard for the lives of his soldiers and is linked to the loss of Bakhmut. His family has also cast some doubt on his loyalty, with his mother living in Russia and supporting social media posts approving of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
However, by conducting the Kursk operation, Syrsky proved that he is a "worthy successor to the visionary General Valeriy Zaluzhny and confirmed President Volodymyr Zelensky's support for fresh ideas in the army."
Moreover, the invasion of Russian territory emboldened Ukraine's most ardent Western supporters. Russia's reluctance to translate apocalyptic rhetoric into tactical nuclear strikes, the destruction of the Kyiv dam, or the blowing up of the Zaporizhzhya NPP destroyed the "risk of escalation" arguments against arming Ukraine.
The large number of Ukrainian strikes on enemy oil infrastructure further weakens the fear around this topic. Ukraine's ability to hold on to captured enemy territory has increased speculation about a land swap deal and reduced pressure on Kyiv to make unilateral territorial concessions.
"And yet... this massive boost in morale has done little to improve the situation on the front lines in Ukraine. Russia has occupied New York City and Mezhevoye, near Avdiivka, and is on the verge of capturing the Donetsk logistics hub of Pokrovsk. Russia's seizure of 93 square miles of Ukrainian territory in August is significantly larger than the 21 square miles it averaged during the first seven months of 2024. Aside from Ukraine's 3rd Separate Airborne Brigade's 2-kilometer advance against Russia's encircled positions in Kharkov, Kyiv has few military successes to celebrate," the publication explains.
At the same time, the Russian public's apathy over the situation in Kursk ensures that Russia is unlikely to pull forces out of Donetsk to defend its land. Putin's army of propagandists has normalized Ukraine's seizure of territory in Kursk, and the vague promise of Kyiv's eventual defeat has reassured most Russians.
Moreover, the revelation of Russia’s limited escalation capability has not accelerated approvals for sophisticated weapons transfers to Ukraine. Although the US is due to include the Joint Air-to-Surface Missile (JASSM) in the fall arms package, technical problems could force Ukraine to wait months to receive it. Germany has not approved the export of the Taurus cruise missile, and Washington has not unblocked the use of the UK’s Storm Shadow missiles against Russian targets.
So while Ukraine’s invasion has restored the feel-good factor after a tough year of military setbacks and disappointments, tangible military gains have yet to materialise, if they are ever to be made.
