Shortage of skilled workers forces employers to raise wages, - NBU
Date: 2024-09-06 Author: Nazar Litvin Categories: ECONOMY
At the same time, the supply of labor remains limited, so the labor shortage is increasing, which puts upward pressure on wages.
As noted in the NBU Macroeconomic and Monetary Review, the revival of economic activity in August 2024 also led to a further increase in the number of vacancies.
In particular, in August, the number of vacancies increased the most in security and safety (by 4.6 times y/y), telecommunications (by 45% y/y) and healthcare (by 34% y/y).
"After the shock caused by problems with energy supply in previous months, in August, according to surveys of enterprises, the growth in the number of workers also resumed," the review says.
At the same time, the labor supply remained limited due to the consequences of the war, the NBU noted.
According to a survey by the Razumkov Center, 73% of workers consider mobilization a problem for the labor market. According to a survey of individual entrepreneurs from the EBA, 64% of enterprises named mobilization as the factor that has the greatest negative impact on business.
The shortage of personnel, especially skilled workers, remains significant. After a slight decrease, probably caused by a decrease in demand due to shutdowns of enterprises due to power outages, according to a survey by the Institute of Economic Development, the shortage of skilled workers reached a new maximum.
According to a survey by the Razumkov Center, 60% of workers (employers, employees, working co-owners of enterprises, the self-employed) indicated a shortage of personnel at their enterprise.
"The pressure from the shortage of workers led to a further increase in real wages," the review says.
Wage forecasts
The Ministry of Economy has changed its expectations for wage growth in 2024. The average monthly salary of employees (gross) is expected to be UAH 20,581, and adjusted for inflation, it will grow by 12.0%.
The NBU predicts that in 2024, nominal wages are expected to grow by 16.1%, real wages by 9.7%. In 2025, nominal wages will grow by 14.6%, real wages by 5.8%, in 2026, nominal wages will grow by 8.7%, real wages by 2.9%.
As noted in the NBU Macroeconomic and Monetary Review, the revival of economic activity in August 2024 also led to a further increase in the number of vacancies.
In particular, in August, the number of vacancies increased the most in security and safety (by 4.6 times y/y), telecommunications (by 45% y/y) and healthcare (by 34% y/y).
"After the shock caused by problems with energy supply in previous months, in August, according to surveys of enterprises, the growth in the number of workers also resumed," the review says.
At the same time, the labor supply remained limited due to the consequences of the war, the NBU noted.
According to a survey by the Razumkov Center, 73% of workers consider mobilization a problem for the labor market. According to a survey of individual entrepreneurs from the EBA, 64% of enterprises named mobilization as the factor that has the greatest negative impact on business.
Wage growth
According to a survey by the Razumkov Center, 60% of workers (employers, employees, working co-owners of enterprises, the self-employed) indicated a shortage of personnel at their enterprise.
"The pressure from the shortage of workers led to a further increase in real wages," the review says.
Wage forecasts
The Ministry of Economy has changed its expectations for wage growth in 2024. The average monthly salary of employees (gross) is expected to be UAH 20,581, and adjusted for inflation, it will grow by 12.0%.
The NBU predicts that in 2024, nominal wages are expected to grow by 16.1%, real wages by 9.7%. In 2025, nominal wages will grow by 14.6%, real wages by 5.8%, in 2026, nominal wages will grow by 8.7%, real wages by 2.9%.
