Bloomberg Assesses the Probability of Civil Unrest in the World’s 20 Largest Economies
Date: 2024-09-16 Author: Nazar Litvin Categories: WORLD
The analysis finds that the probability of open civil unrest next year in the United States is low — just 2.9% — but it is the third-highest among the 20 largest economies. The risk in the United States is more than twice that of countries like Canada, Germany, and Australia, which are considered America’s democratic peers.
The analysis adapts an approach developed by the U.S. government’s Political Instability Task Force to assess the risk of violent domestic conflict. It attempts to identify a number of trends that have fueled fears of unrest in the years since the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021.
The analysis finds that the breakdown of democratic institutions and the rise of factional grievances in the United States have significantly increased the risk of domestic armed conflict.
"There is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding forecasts for rare events such as internal conflict. However, we believe the model is a useful way to build an analytical framework for examining the rise in risks in the US - and the results are far from reassuring," wrote Bloomberg Economics analyst Nick Hallmark.
The agency's analysts estimated the probability of internal unrest in Russia at 4%.
The analysis adapts an approach developed by the U.S. government’s Political Instability Task Force to assess the risk of violent domestic conflict. It attempts to identify a number of trends that have fueled fears of unrest in the years since the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021.
The analysis finds that the breakdown of democratic institutions and the rise of factional grievances in the United States have significantly increased the risk of domestic armed conflict.
"There is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding forecasts for rare events such as internal conflict. However, we believe the model is a useful way to build an analytical framework for examining the rise in risks in the US - and the results are far from reassuring," wrote Bloomberg Economics analyst Nick Hallmark.
The agency's analysts estimated the probability of internal unrest in Russia at 4%.
