Russia foresaw Ukrainian invasion of Kursk region months in advance - The Guardian
Date: 2024-09-20 Author: Кирило Загоруйко Categories: WAR
Russian military command foresaw Ukraine's invasion of the Kursk region and developed plans to prevent it for several months, according to captured documents from the Interior Ministry, the FSB and the Russian army from the Kursk region, which Ukrainian soldiers shared with journalists from The Guardian. The journalists were unable to independently verify the authenticity of the documents, although they are noted to have the hallmarks of genuine messages.
"Some of the documents are printed orders sent to various units, while others are handwritten journals recording events and problems at specific positions. The earliest entries are dated as late as 2023, while the most recent documents are dated just six weeks before Ukraine launched its invasion of the Kursk region on August 6. They are mostly from units of the 488th Guards Motor Rifle Regiment, in particular the second company of the 17th Battalion," the newspaper writes.
For example, an entry from January 4 spoke of the "possibility of a breakthrough of the state border" by the Ukrainian army and ordered increased preparations to repel any attack. On February 19, unit commanders were warned of Ukraine's plans "to quickly advance from the Sumy region into Russian territory to a depth of up to 80 km [50 miles] in order to create a four-day "corridor" before the main units of the Ukrainian army arrive in armoured vehicles," the Guardian writes.
In mid-March, border units were ordered to strengthen their defenses and organize additional exercises in preparation for a Ukrainian cross-border attack.
"And already in mid-June, a more specific warning appeared about Ukraine's plans "in the direction of Yunakovka - Sudzha with the aim of taking control of Sudzha." It was also predicted that Ukraine would try to destroy the bridge over the Seim River in order to disrupt Russian supply lines in this region, which subsequently happened," the publication writes.
At the same time, the June document contained a complaint that Russian units deployed on the front "are filled on average only by 60-70% and consist mainly of reservists with poor training."
The documents also provide insight into Russian tactics over the past year
For example, in one case it is said that it is necessary to create false trenches and positions to confuse Ukrainian reconnaissance drones. "It is necessary to create models of tanks, armoured vehicles and artillery units, as well as mannequins of soldiers, and move them around periodically," one order says.
It adds that a number of soldiers should be sent to the false positions, who will light fires and walk around with torches at night, and that Russia should create radio transmissions about the false positions in order to intercept them. It is unclear whether such positions have been created; members of the Ukrainian unit who have flown reconnaissance drones in the area in recent weeks told the Guardian they had seen no evidence of such positions.
Russian military morale problems
Documents seen by the Guardian also show Russian concerns about morale among soldiers in the Kursk region. Problems have been exacerbated by the suicide of a soldier at the front who was said to have been "depressed by his service in the Russian army". In order to prevent such cases, unit commanders are instructed to identify servicemen who are "mentally unprepared to perform their official duties or who are prone to deviant behavior, and organize their retraining and transfer to military medical institutions." In addition, soldiers must receive 5-10 minutes a day, as well as an hour once a week for political classes "aimed at maintaining and improving the political, moral and psychological state of personnel."
