How long will it be possible to avoid power outage schedules: what the government is predicting
Date: 2024-09-20 Author: Alexei Fomin Categories: ECONOMY
The government remains optimistic, despite the risks of shelling, a shortage of generation, and possibly even the failure of repaired equipment.
Under the optimistic scenario, which the government is currently considering as the baseline, this winter will be like last winter - with virtually no power outages. They can only occur on days of severe frost - more than 10 degrees. This was stated by one of the Cabinet officials on condition of anonymity.
Arguments in favor of such a forecast were the high level of protection of energy facilities, the commissioning of additional generation and an increase in imports. However, so far positive expectations have not found specific confirmation outside government offices, either in the expert community or among energy market participants, the article notes.
Attacks on generation and shutdown schedules
According to the IMF, large-scale attacks on the Ukrainian energy sector in late March and May seriously damaged or destroyed about half of the capacity generating more than 9 GW. Several thermal (TPP) and hydroelectric power plants (HPP) in the Kyiv, Kharkiv and Zaporizhia regions were completely destroyed, while other TPPs and HPPs were damaged to varying degrees. The volume of destroyed capacity is estimated at more than 80% for TPPs and more than 40% for HPPs.
Therefore, since May, Ukraine has been implementing power outage schedules for the population and businesses. Since the end of July, the schedules have practically not been applied.
According to the UN forecast, this winter, Ukrainians should expect power outages lasting from four to 18 hours per day.
The IMF predicts that the average electricity deficit in Ukraine in 2024 will be about 10%. At the same time, a serious deficit (up to 30%) is likely to occur only during rush hour.
Under the optimistic scenario, which the government is currently considering as the baseline, this winter will be like last winter - with virtually no power outages. They can only occur on days of severe frost - more than 10 degrees. This was stated by one of the Cabinet officials on condition of anonymity.
Arguments in favor of such a forecast were the high level of protection of energy facilities, the commissioning of additional generation and an increase in imports. However, so far positive expectations have not found specific confirmation outside government offices, either in the expert community or among energy market participants, the article notes.
Attacks on generation and shutdown schedules
According to the IMF, large-scale attacks on the Ukrainian energy sector in late March and May seriously damaged or destroyed about half of the capacity generating more than 9 GW. Several thermal (TPP) and hydroelectric power plants (HPP) in the Kyiv, Kharkiv and Zaporizhia regions were completely destroyed, while other TPPs and HPPs were damaged to varying degrees. The volume of destroyed capacity is estimated at more than 80% for TPPs and more than 40% for HPPs.
Therefore, since May, Ukraine has been implementing power outage schedules for the population and businesses. Since the end of July, the schedules have practically not been applied.
According to the UN forecast, this winter, Ukrainians should expect power outages lasting from four to 18 hours per day.
The IMF predicts that the average electricity deficit in Ukraine in 2024 will be about 10%. At the same time, a serious deficit (up to 30%) is likely to occur only during rush hour.
