ISW: Russia has probably captured Vuhledar, but the front will not collapse
Date: 2024-10-02 Author: Кирило Загоруйко Categories: WAR
Russian troops have probably captured Vuhledar in the Donetsk region. However, it is unclear how quickly the occupiers can advance beyond the city in the near future.
According to the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the occupation of Vuhledar is unlikely to radically change the course of offensive operations, since the city is not a particularly important logistical hub.
Geolocation videos dated September 30 and October 1 indicate that Russian occupiers have installed their tricolors in different parts of Vuhledar. On October 1, Russian bloggers announced that the city was occupied.
However, on the same day, a Ukrainian serviceman reported that part of the Ukrainian group carried out a planned withdrawal from Vuhledar to avoid encirclement. ISW analysts recall that the Russians captured Ugledar after 2.5 years of unsuccessful assaults.
The Russian Federation carried out at least two major offensive attempts to capture Ugledar in October-November 2022 and January-February 2023. Both attempts to capture the city resulted in heavy losses of personnel and military equipment. In particular, the 155th brigade of Russian marines was defeated in the vicinity of the city.
Some Russian sources expressed doubts that Russian troops would be able to quickly advance and achieve operationally significant breakthroughs immediately after the capture of Ugledar.
At the same time, Russian bloggers noted and admitted that they do not expect the front line to collapse after the capture of Ugledar. The city will be cleared to make it a suitable position for the start of future assaults. As ISW concluded:
"Russia's capture of Vuhledar is unlikely to fundamentally change the course of offensive operations in the western Donetsk region, mainly because Vuhledar is not a particularly important logistical hub, and also because Russian forces controlled most of the main roads leading to Vuhledar before October 1, meaning that Russian forces already had the ability to cut off Ukrainian logistics in this part of the front to some extent."
