Ukraine could be accepted into NATO under the "West German" approach, - FT
Date: 2024-10-22 Author: Кирило Загоруйко Categories: POLICY
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to seek support for his plan for victory. At the same time, Western capitals increasingly understand that policy towards Ukraine requires changes. A key next step for Washington could be a commitment to Ukraine's membership in NATO, which would include the application of Article 5 mutual defense provisions for those parts of Ukraine controlled by Kiev, the Financial Times writes.
This approach is often called the "West German solution". There are similarities with Germany after 1945, but there are also significant differences. Germany was divided after a war that it started. Ukraine, on the other hand, could be divided because of Russian aggression. While Germany had clearly defined occupation zones, Ukraine has no such agreed lines. Germany also had numerous Western troops on its territory, while there are no Western troops in Ukraine.
The Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine are subject to forced Russification, with Putin himself calling them "new regions of Russia." It is unlikely that any future Russian leader will peacefully return these territories to Ukraine, as happened with East Germany under Mikhail Gorbachev.
West Germany became a NATO member in 1955 and a co-founder of the European Economic Community in 1957. Ukraine is currently a candidate for EU membership, but for the "West German solution" to be truly implemented, NATO must complement this process. Security is the basis for Ukrainians to return from abroad, attract investment, and carry out the necessary reforms to join the EU.
Despite the loss of some territory, a poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology showed that 47% of Ukrainians are ready to accept it, provided that reconstruction is financed and membership in the EU and NATO is secured.
Specific decisions on military aid are expected after the US presidential election. If Donald Trump wins, the future of support for Ukraine will be unpredictable. However, a change of administration in the US could open up new opportunities. The role of Germany as a key European state, as well as France and Great Britain, remains important.
Serious negotiations with Russia are likely to take place some time in the future. But preliminary agreements may be reached earlier and remain stable. There is also an alternative scenario, in particular, the publication writes:
"The alternative to this scenario is the defeat of Ukraine, its division and demoralization, which could lead to radicalization. This could also mean increased influence for Moscow and missed opportunities for the West."
