A Ready-Made "Outpost": Foreign Policy Explains What a Victorious Ukraine Will Offer Europe
Date: 2024-12-16 Author: Кирило Загоруйко Categories: WORLD
With the advent of the Donald Trump administration, the question of the future of transatlantic cooperation and the role of the American "security umbrella" that, albeit with shortcomings, has ensured peace in Europe since 1945, is taking on new significance. Growing uncertainty about the duration of the US commitment to European security poses a challenge for European leaders: how to operate in an increasingly complex threat environment without the guarantee of American support, writes Foreign Policy.
Despite the fact that the situation is stimulating changes in the strategic approach of European states, even the most radical solutions cannot quickly compensate for the US military advantages in technology and scale. To achieve this level, it will take at least a generation of targeted investment in Europe's defense capabilities. However, in the near future, Europe needs effective means of deterrence. Is there a solution? It is already here - in Ukraine. To ensure their own security and support Kyiv, European states must actively implement Ukraine's victory plan, which will strengthen its position both on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.
Ukraine, with its combat experience, has already demonstrated its ability to effectively counter Russian troops and operate under full mobilization. Its role could become a key component in the European deterrence system. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently presented a five-point plan, which includes an invitation to join NATO, increased defense assistance, economic cooperation, conventional deterrence, and the creation of a Ukrainian "outpost" to protect Europe. Although this plan was rational and realistic in detail, it did not receive widespread support in the West due to the reluctance of Western capitals to take risks.
However, after the recent US elections, the situation may change. Washington has already demonstrated its readiness to significantly increase military assistance to Ukraine, in particular the provision of modern high-precision long-range weapons. France and the UK have also shown determination to increase support for Kyiv, and Paris has even talked about the possibility of deploying European troops in Ukraine.
If these initiatives help restore the momentum of the Ukrainian army or weaken Russian forces, Kyiv will be able to negotiate from a better position, and Europe will have a long-term solution to strengthen its defense capabilities. This will require European leaders to act quickly and decisively, in particular by creating a sustainable system of arms supplies to Ukraine and developing a common security vision with Kiev.
In the long term, if the role of the United States as the main guarantor of transatlantic security weakens, Ukraine can become a ready and effective alternative capable of providing stability and protection for Europe, the publication concluded.
