Putin is building up his army: expert assesses consequences for Ukraine
Date: 2025-02-13 Author: Кирило Загоруйко Categories: WAR
In 2025, the Russian Federation plans to mobilize 150 thousand people for the war against Ukraine. According to the head of security programs at the Center for Global Studies Strategy XXI Pavel Lakiychuk, such a number will compensate for the enemy's losses.
He noted that the figure of 150 thousand named by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky correlates with the one voiced by Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin in December 2024 and corresponds to the optimistic forecasts of the occupiers.
"Putin and his minister Belousov said in unison that they were pleased with the mobilization rate - the rate of recruitment of new meat for the war with Ukraine in 2024. And they are trying to maintain this same rate in 2025. This indicates that the Russians are not going to turn away from the direction of confrontation and plan to continue pressure on Ukraine, plan to continue the war," said Lakiychuk.
He also assessed whether this would help provide the enemy with a decisive advantage.
"It is difficult to say. The numbers that are being voiced - from 120, 160, 170 thousand, together, possibly, with North Korean, Belarusian, possibly with other mercenaries, this is a rate of about 10 thousand servicemen per month, which the Russian mobilization machine can handle at most," the expert explained.
According to him, this should be compared with the number of enemy losses in recent months. Then, according to the expert, it turns out that 150 thousand is approximately compensation for losses on the battlefield without a serious increase in reserves.
"It cannot be said that this is good news, but this is not what Putin would like. It means that his war machine cannot cope with the tasks that are set for it," Lakiychuk noted.
In his opinion, the center for providing the Russian army with weapons and military equipment is largely transferred to its partners - North Korea, Iran, and it is quite possible that under certain conditions China may join this group. As the analyst emphasized, this would be the worst option for Ukraine.
At the same time, it is now observed that the Russians have a noticeable deficit of modern weapons, which they are trying to compensate for with the resources that are in storage depots.
"Restoration of equipment and ammunition is a less expensive process than the development of new ones. Therefore, I will not say that the potential will be preserved, but the quantitative indicators will not fall as quickly as we would like," Lakiychuk stated.
