Trump and Putin talks: Bloomberg voiced three scenarios for ending the war in Ukraine
Date: 2025-02-13 Author: Кирило Загоруйко Categories: WAR
US President Donald Trump held talks with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. This step by the American leader caused a negative reaction from the European Union and concerns about the "surrender" of Ukraine.
Europeans are concerned that no one from Trump's team has real experience in negotiating with the Russians. At the same time, most members of Putin's team have ten years of experience in dealing with the US and Ukraine and learned their craft from the Russian special services.
This situation creates a number of dangers for both the European Union and Ukraine. Under pressure from the Russians, Washington may make a bad deal that will not end the war, but will only delay its spread across Europe.
Bloomberg journalists considered three possible scenarios for the development of events in Ukraine.
Base Case
The most likely scenario is that the occupied territory will remain under de facto Russian control for the foreseeable future. There could be some land swaps involving Russian territory in the Kursk region seized by Kiev.
Ukraine would receive some security guarantees. And much of the negotiation will focus on how strong they will be. With NATO membership likely off the table, any promise made today will ultimately depend on future political leaders.
If the Europeans can get through to the White House, they will try to persuade Trump to maintain U.S. support for Kyiv long enough for EU countries to build up their own capabilities.
Best Case
The ideal scenario for Kyiv would be a bilateral commitment by the U.S. and Europe to intervene if Moscow backs out of the deal. But the risk of direct conflict with Russia has even some of Ukraine’s most ardent supporters wary.
Instead, Kyiv’s partners could commit to increased military support and the reimposition or tightening of sanctions on Russia. They could also help Ukraine develop its defense industry and rebuild its forces to serve as a major deterrent to Kremlin aggression.
If the EU can meet all these conditions, it could pave the way for Ukraine to join the bloc, perhaps within the next 10 years, strengthening its eastern flank and demonstrating its increased ability to influence its neighbors.
Worst case
In Kyiv’s worst-case scenario, Trump could lose interest in Ukraine’s future before a settlement, cutting off military and financial aid and leaving the Europeans to sort out the problem.
Even if Trump’s engagement with Putin produces a peace deal that can be maintained for now, it could only delay the next phase of what Putin has called a war between NATO and Russia.
A deal would preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty and allow the country to begin rebuilding. But it could also cement Putin’s significant gains: control over most of Ukraine’s territory and a potential obstacle to Kyiv’s entry into NATO.
The Baltic states, which Putin views as part of a Russian empire he wants to restore, would be the most likely target.
