Putin won't laugh for long, gap between Trump and Europe is closing - The Telegraph
Date: 2025-04-02 Author: Кирило Загоруйко Categories: WORLD
The chill between Europe and US President Donald Trump is likely to be temporary. America is returning to the "Wild West" - bold, individualistic and uncompromising in pragmatism. At the same time, Europe is doubling its efforts towards a technocratic approach, writes geopolitical strategist, political scientist, columnist for The Telegraph Mark Brolin.
The differences between the US and Europe may seem insurmountable. There are plenty of predictions today about the inevitable breakup of NATO, which is advantageous for Russian leader Vladimir Putin. However, this tension is most likely temporary.
On the one hand, the current crisis in the alliance may even be useful. For decades, the relationship between the US and Europe was built on outdated post-war security mechanisms, with Europe relying heavily on American guarantees. Russia remained the perceived enemy that kept the alliance together. But with the collapse of the USSR, it became clear that Moscow’s superpower status was largely a bluff.
Despite this, European countries continued to emphasize the Russian threat, in part to maintain US support. The US military and intelligence services, for their part, also have a vested interest in maintaining this narrative – after all, their job is to identify threats.
But a rethink is long overdue. Russia certainly poses a threat to Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova, but its global influence is weaker than at any time in recent history. The Kremlin, along with its client regime in Belarus, is a relic of the 19th century. Putin and his entourage are well aware that their power could be significantly weakened if Ukraine succeeds and its economy catches up with other Eastern European countries that have already escaped Moscow's influence.
So despite Putin's rhetoric about having complete control over the situation, this is largely an illusion. Europe has two nuclear powers and at least four countries with GDPs higher than Russia's. So if the US forces Europe to take on more responsibility, the continent can independently counter threats from Moscow.
Meanwhile, it makes more strategic sense for the US to focus on China, its main geopolitical rival. Avoiding a conflict over Taiwan is in the interests of not only America, but also Europe.
Despite the current crisis, the US and the EU remain deeply economically interdependent. Europe is one of America's largest trading partners. In military terms, Washington remains a reliable ally, especially within NATO.
So even if Trump insists on redistributing the defense burden, he cannot afford to completely alienate European partners without damaging US strategic interests. Moreover, even if he tries, Congress is unlikely to allow radical steps like leaving NATO, the expert notes. Meanwhile, European countries are increasingly investing in their own defense, which only increases their value to the United States.
As for the economy, Trump’s stance on tariffs and Ukraine often conflicts with influential Republicans. Despite the temporary silencing of this opposition, it is likely to regain its position, especially as the president’s popularity begins to decline.
In addition, market forces may prove to be another factor restraining Trump from escalating trade wars with Europe. Any significant increase in protectionism will harm American businesses, which will create additional pressure on the administration. In addition, Trump has some rational criticisms of European trade policy: the EU maintains protectionism in sectors such as automobiles and agriculture. Perhaps reconsidering these issues will help ease transatlantic tensions.
