Russia vs Ukraine. How it came to the big war
Date: 2022-03-11 Categories: WAR
The conflict between Moscow and Kyiv is rooted in history. Its essence is that the Kremlin does not recognize the independence of Ukraine.
Russian armored vehicles during exercises near the borders of Ukraine, December 2021
The prerequisites for tension in relations between Russia and Ukraine and the start of a big war unleashed on the morning of February 24 have been developing for more than a dozen years. Russian President Vladimir Putin's arguments go back even further, to the Middle Ages, when parts of what is now Ukraine and Russia were part of Kievan Rus. From there, the thesis of the head of the Kremlin about "one people", to which he ranks the Belarusians.
At the same time, the President of the Russian Federation rarely recalls that Russians and Ukrainians did not always have the same path and that as a result two languages and two cultures were formed - related, but different. When both republics became separate countries after the collapse of the Soviet Union, there was another difference, a political one. Kyiv followed the path of Western democracies, with the change of power. Moscow turned away from him.
The current war is the result of the policy of the last 30 years. It can be conditionally divided into three stages, each of about ten years. DW - about turning events.
1992-2003: Ukraine leaves, Russia does not mind
In December 1991, Ukraine, together with Russia and Belarus, was one of the three republics that sealed the collapse of the USSR in Belovezhskaya Pushcha. Moscow apparently hoped to maintain influence with the help of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and cheap gas supplies. But it turned out differently. Russia and Belarus created a union state, Ukraine increasingly looked to the West.
Russian armored vehicles during exercises near the borders of Ukraine, December 2021
The prerequisites for tension in relations between Russia and Ukraine and the start of a big war unleashed on the morning of February 24 have been developing for more than a dozen years. Russian President Vladimir Putin's arguments go back even further, to the Middle Ages, when parts of what is now Ukraine and Russia were part of Kievan Rus. From there, the thesis of the head of the Kremlin about "one people", to which he ranks the Belarusians.
At the same time, the President of the Russian Federation rarely recalls that Russians and Ukrainians did not always have the same path and that as a result two languages and two cultures were formed - related, but different. When both republics became separate countries after the collapse of the Soviet Union, there was another difference, a political one. Kyiv followed the path of Western democracies, with the change of power. Moscow turned away from him.
The current war is the result of the policy of the last 30 years. It can be conditionally divided into three stages, each of about ten years. DW - about turning events.
1992-2003: Ukraine leaves, Russia does not mind
In December 1991, Ukraine, together with Russia and Belarus, was one of the three republics that sealed the collapse of the USSR in Belovezhskaya Pushcha. Moscow apparently hoped to maintain influence with the help of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and cheap gas supplies. But it turned out differently. Russia and Belarus created a union state, Ukraine increasingly looked to the West.
Ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, 2010
This annoyed the Kremlin, but Ukraine then inherited from the USSR almost a million strong army and the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world. Kyiv refused the missiles, handing them over to Russia in exchange for security guarantees (the Budapest Memorandum) and economic assistance. While the West did not reciprocate Ukraine and was not going to integrate it into its structures, Moscow's reaction looked restrained. There were no shots, except for the incident with shooting in the air in 1992, when the Black Sea Fleet patrol ship raised the Ukrainian flag and left Sevastopol for Odessa. Russia in the first post-Soviet decade was economically weak, and the Chechen wars took away resources. By dividing the Black Sea Fleet and signing the "Big Treaty" in 1997, the Russian Federation recognized the borders of Ukraine, including Crimea.
Ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, 2010
This annoyed the Kremlin, but Ukraine then inherited from the USSR almost a million strong army and the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world. Kyiv refused the missiles, handing them over to Russia in exchange for security guarantees (the Budapest Memorandum) and economic assistance. While the West did not reciprocate Ukraine and was not going to integrate it into its structures, Moscow's reaction looked restrained. There were no shots, except for the incident with shooting in the air in 1992, when the Black Sea Fleet patrol ship raised the Ukrainian flag and left Sevastopol for Odessa. Russia in the first post-Soviet decade was economically weak, and the Chechen wars took away resources. By dividing the Black Sea Fleet and signing the "Big Treaty" in 1997, the Russian Federation recognized the borders of Ukraine, including Crimea.
2003-2013: Cracks in post-Soviet friendship
The first major diplomatic crisis between Moscow and Kiev occurred under President Putin. In the fall of 2003, Russia suddenly began building a dam in the Kerch Strait towards the Ukrainian island of Tuzla. Kyiv took this as an attempt to redistribute the borders. The conflict was resolved after a personal meeting of the presidents. Construction was stopped, but the declared friendship between the two countries received the first cracks.
Supporters of Yushchenko in Kyiv, October 2004
In the 2004 Ukrainian presidential election, Russia actively supported the pro-Russian candidate Viktor Yanukovych, but the Orange Revolution prevented him from winning amid allegations of fraud. Pro-Western politician Viktor Yushchenko became president. His victory became the starting point for changes in the policy of the Russian Federation. They are aimed at preventing what Moscow calls "color revolutions" and blames the West for. During Yushchenko's rule, the Russian Federation twice blocked the gas valve to Ukraine - in 2006 and 2009, which led to interruptions in transit supplies to Europe.
The key event for understanding the current situation occurred in 2008. At the NATO summit in Bucharest, US President George W. Bush tried to get Ukraine and Georgia to receive a Membership Action Plan (MAP). Putin sharply opposed, Moscow made it clear that it does not fully recognize the independence of Ukraine. As a result, Germany and France blocked Bush's plan. Both post-Soviet countries, Ukraine and Georgia, were promised NATO membership, but no date.
Since it was not possible to quickly move into a military alliance, Ukraine set a course for economic integration through an association agreement with the European Union. In the summer of 2013, a few months before a possible signing, Russia began to exert massive economic pressure on Ukraine, almost cutting off Ukrainian exports at the border. In autumn, the government of Yanukovych, who became president in 2010, announced the suspension of preparations for signing an agreement with Brussels, citing pressure from the Russian Federation. Yanukovych's decision provoked protests in Ukraine, against which he fled to Russia in February 2014.
Supporters of Yushchenko in Kyiv, October 2004
In the 2004 Ukrainian presidential election, Russia actively supported the pro-Russian candidate Viktor Yanukovych, but the Orange Revolution prevented him from winning amid allegations of fraud. Pro-Western politician Viktor Yushchenko became president. His victory became the starting point for changes in the policy of the Russian Federation. They are aimed at preventing what Moscow calls "color revolutions" and blames the West for. During Yushchenko's rule, the Russian Federation twice blocked the gas valve to Ukraine - in 2006 and 2009, which led to interruptions in transit supplies to Europe.
The key event for understanding the current situation occurred in 2008. At the NATO summit in Bucharest, US President George W. Bush tried to get Ukraine and Georgia to receive a Membership Action Plan (MAP). Putin sharply opposed, Moscow made it clear that it does not fully recognize the independence of Ukraine. As a result, Germany and France blocked Bush's plan. Both post-Soviet countries, Ukraine and Georgia, were promised NATO membership, but no date.
Since it was not possible to quickly move into a military alliance, Ukraine set a course for economic integration through an association agreement with the European Union. In the summer of 2013, a few months before a possible signing, Russia began to exert massive economic pressure on Ukraine, almost cutting off Ukrainian exports at the border. In autumn, the government of Yanukovych, who became president in 2010, announced the suspension of preparations for signing an agreement with Brussels, citing pressure from the Russian Federation. Yanukovych's decision provoked protests in Ukraine, against which he fled to Russia in February 2014.
2014-2021: Annexation of Crimea and war in Donbass
Russian military during the annexation of Crimea, March 2014
A power vacuum arose in Kyiv, and in March 2014 Russia annexed Crimea. It was a turning point, the beginning of an undeclared war. At the same time, Russian and local paramilitary structures gave impetus to separatism in the Donbass, "people's republics" were proclaimed in Donetsk and Luhansk, which were led by people who had come from the Russian Federation in unmarked uniforms. Kyiv reacted slowly, waited for the presidential elections at the end of May, and only then decided on a large-scale use of force, which it called the "anti-terrorist operation" (ATO).
In early June 2014, in France, at events marking the 70th anniversary of the Allied landings in Normandy, newly elected President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko met for the first time with his Russian counterpart Putin through the mediation of the leaders of Germany and France. This is how the "Norman format" was born. In the summer, the Ukrainian army began to push back the separatists, but at the end of August, Russia, according to Kyiv, used its army on a large scale in the Donbass. Moscow denies this. Ukrainian forces were defeated near Ilovaisk, which was the peak of the conflict. The war along the entire front line ended with the signing of a ceasefire in Minsk in September, which was quickly broken.
Pro-Russian separatist tank near Donetsk, 2015
Then the positional war began. In early 2015, the separatists went on a broad offensive. Kyiv again accused Moscow of using an army without identification marks, the Russian Federation again denied everything. Ukrainian forces were defeated near the hub city of Debaltseve, which they had to leave in a hurry. Then, with the mediation of Germany and France, "Minsk-2" was signed, an agreement that still remains the main document for resolving the conflict. Not a single one of its points has been fully implemented, for which the parties accuse each other.
The last time a breakthrough seemed possible was in the summer and autumn of 2019, when the parties agreed and implemented the withdrawal of forces in several areas. But after the Normandy format summit in Paris, there were no more meetings. Russia refuses to communicate directly with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, accusing him of failing to implement Minsk-2. In 2021, the Russian Federation twice pulled troops to the borders of Ukraine - in spring and late autumn. In December, President Putin for the first time issued an ultimatum to the United States and NATO not to accept Ukraine and other post-Soviet countries into the alliance, and not to provide them with military assistance. The Alliance refused.
Russian military during the annexation of Crimea, March 2014
A power vacuum arose in Kyiv, and in March 2014 Russia annexed Crimea. It was a turning point, the beginning of an undeclared war. At the same time, Russian and local paramilitary structures gave impetus to separatism in the Donbass, "people's republics" were proclaimed in Donetsk and Luhansk, which were led by people who had come from the Russian Federation in unmarked uniforms. Kyiv reacted slowly, waited for the presidential elections at the end of May, and only then decided on a large-scale use of force, which it called the "anti-terrorist operation" (ATO).
In early June 2014, in France, at events marking the 70th anniversary of the Allied landings in Normandy, newly elected President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko met for the first time with his Russian counterpart Putin through the mediation of the leaders of Germany and France. This is how the "Norman format" was born. In the summer, the Ukrainian army began to push back the separatists, but at the end of August, Russia, according to Kyiv, used its army on a large scale in the Donbass. Moscow denies this. Ukrainian forces were defeated near Ilovaisk, which was the peak of the conflict. The war along the entire front line ended with the signing of a ceasefire in Minsk in September, which was quickly broken.
Pro-Russian separatist tank near Donetsk, 2015
Then the positional war began. In early 2015, the separatists went on a broad offensive. Kyiv again accused Moscow of using an army without identification marks, the Russian Federation again denied everything. Ukrainian forces were defeated near the hub city of Debaltseve, which they had to leave in a hurry. Then, with the mediation of Germany and France, "Minsk-2" was signed, an agreement that still remains the main document for resolving the conflict. Not a single one of its points has been fully implemented, for which the parties accuse each other.
The last time a breakthrough seemed possible was in the summer and autumn of 2019, when the parties agreed and implemented the withdrawal of forces in several areas. But after the Normandy format summit in Paris, there were no more meetings. Russia refuses to communicate directly with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, accusing him of failing to implement Minsk-2. In 2021, the Russian Federation twice pulled troops to the borders of Ukraine - in spring and late autumn. In December, President Putin for the first time issued an ultimatum to the United States and NATO not to accept Ukraine and other post-Soviet countries into the alliance, and not to provide them with military assistance. The Alliance refused.
2022: The beginning of the war of Russia against Ukraine
On February 21, 2022, Russian President Vladmir Putin recognized the independence of the separatist "Donetsk People's Republic" and "Luhansk People's Republic". The relevant documents were ratified by the country's parliament. Putin also stated that these formations include the territories of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine. This is much more than the region controlled by the separatists.
Early on the morning of February 24, the head of the Russian state announced the start of a "special military operation" against Ukraine. He called its goal the "demilitarization" of the country. The armed forces of the Russian Federation began to strike at the cities of Ukraine and its military infrastructure - not only in the Donbass.
