A militant rocket hit a Gaza hospital and veered off course - Associated Press
Date: 2023-10-21 Author: Кирило Загоруйко Categories: WORLD
The rocket that hit a hospital in Gaza was fired from Palestine. It was probably a terrorist missile that went off course.
Associated Press journalists came to this conclusion based on an analysis of the video of the attack. The footage shows one of the rockets fired by Hamas militants veering off course and exploding in the air before falling to the ground. Seconds later, the video shows a powerful explosion at the site of the Al-Ahli Arab hospital in Gaza.
AP's findings
"The AP analyzed more than a dozen videos from the moments before, during and after the hospital explosion, as well as satellite imagery and photographs. The AP's analysis shows that the rocket that exploded in mid-air was fired from Palestinian territory, and that the hospital explosion was likely , occurred when part of this rocket fell to the ground," the agency writes.
AP's assessment was supported by a number of experts. "In the absence of further evidence, the most likely scenario would be that it was a missile launched from Gaza that failed mid-flight and ended up in the hospital by mistake," said Henry Schlotman, a former US Army intelligence analyst.
The key video in the analysis appeared shortly before 19:00 local time, when the Arabic-language channel Al Jazeera broadcast the moment the rockets were launched by Hamas militants. One of the missiles deviates from the others and explodes in the air. Pieces began to fall to the ground.
Then a small explosion is seen from afar, followed two seconds later by a much larger explosion. Having determined the location from which the channel was broadcasting, journalists claim that the rocket debris fell exactly in the area of the hospital.
A second video, taken from a camera in Israel at the same time as the Al Jazeera footage, shows a salvo of at least 17 rockets fired from Gaza. Then a massive explosion is seen in the hospital.
A third video from Israeli news station Channel 12, taken from a camera on the top floor of its building in Netivot, a town about 16 kilometers southeast of the Gaza City hospital, also captured a volley of rockets fired from Gaza.
"The three videos show several rockets being fired from Gaza before one of them dissipated in the air about three seconds before the explosion at the Al-Ahli Arab hospital," the agency wrote.
Positions of the parties
The Israeli military has repeatedly said it did not hit the hospital and blamed it on a rocket fired from Gaza by Islamic Jihad. Israel's position was supported by US intelligence. There is no crater at the hospital impact site, typical of an aerial bomb attack.
Hamas calls Israel's narrative "fabricated" and accuses it of hitting the hospital in retaliation for ignoring an evacuation warning two days earlier. There is no evidence for these accusations.
What the experts say
Journalists talked to dozens of experts. They all agreed that the most likely scenario was a rocket from Gaza that veered off course and disintegrated seconds before exploding.
Andrea Richardson, an expert in open source intelligence analysis who is a consultant to the Center for Human Rights at the University of California, Berkeley, said specific landmarks visible in the video show where the missiles were launched from.
"From the video evidence I've seen, it's clear that the rockets came from Gaza," Richardson said.
Justin Crump, a former British army officer and intelligence consultant, said the failure rate of homemade rockets used by Hamas militants is high.
"You can see, obviously, it fails mid-flight, spins up and disintegrates, and then hits the ground. The most likely explanation is that it was a tragic accident," Crump said.
Intelligence analyst Schlottman said the most likely scenario remains that it was an insurgent missile that somehow malfunctioned in flight and then landed on a hospital.
"We have video of when the explosion occurred, and the only missile shown in that video had such a divergent trajectory. We cannot rule out other scenarios. ... Only what we have now indicates this," he said He.
Evidence is in place
At the site of the Gaza hospital strike, there is no sign of a large crater that would indicate the fall of an aerial bomb. The hospital buildings surrounding the open area at the center of the explosion were still standing and did not suffer significant structural damage.
The small crater in the hospital parking lot was about a meter in diameter, indicating a device with a much lower explosive load than a bomb. Although Israel's large arsenal includes smaller missiles that can be launched from helicopters and drones, there was no public evidence of such missile attacks in the area of Al Ahly Arab Hospital on Tuesday there was none in the evening.
David Schenk, a retired U.S. Army colonel and expert on military missiles and rockets, said the large fireball captured on video at the hospital could potentially be explained by the fact that a faulty military missile impacted prematurely and was still full of fuel. This fuel then ignited upon impact with the ground, causing a large explosion but leaving a relatively small crater.
The Iron Dome theory
In the days after the explosion, speculation spread on social media that the rocket over Gaza could have been shot down by Iron Dome. Experts say numerous videos showed no visible evidence that Iron Dome missiles were fired from Israel into Gaza airspace.
John Erath, senior policy director at the Arms Control Center and a missile defense expert, said the system could technically intercept a missile over Gaza. However, the Iron Dome aims to operate only in Israeli airspace.
"I'm not saying it's impossible. But based on my understanding of how the system works, it's unlikely," Erath said.
