Ukrainian Grain Association Increases 2023 Harvest Forecast
Date: 2023-11-05 Author: Dima Zakharov Categories: ECONOMY
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has recently updated its estimate for the potential harvest of grains and oilseeds in 2023. The new forecast stands at an impressive 81.6 million tons, marking an increase of 1.1 million tons compared to the previous estimate.
Favorable Weather Conditions:
The constant improvement in this year's harvest forecast can be largely attributed to the favorable weather conditions that have prevailed. The improved weather has positively impacted the expected yields of key crops across the agricultural landscape.
Wheat Production:
The wheat production estimate for 2023 remains steady at 22 million tons, slightly higher than the 20.2 million tons in 2022, though significantly lower than the record-breaking 33 million tons in 2021. It is estimated that potential wheat exports in the 2023/2024 marketing year could reach 16 million tons, taking into account the beginning-of-season carryover of 4.4 million tons.
Barley and Corn Expectations:
Barley harvest in Ukraine is projected to remain at the previous year's level of 5.8 million tons, with an expected export of 3 million tons. Meanwhile, corn production expectations have improved by 0.8 million tons, reaching 28.8 million tons, which is approximately 1.5 million tons more than the previous year. The potential corn export is estimated at 23 million tons.
Sunflower and Rapeseed Production:
Sunflower production in Ukraine is anticipated to reach 14.2 million tons, compared to the previous year's 11.1 million tons, with a potential export of 0.6 million tons. The volume of sunflower processing for oil is expected to reach 13.2 million tons. Rapeseed harvest is estimated at 4.2 million tons, with a 2023/2024 marketing year export potential of 3.7 million tons. Soybean production is projected at 4.8 million tons, with exports of 3.3 million tons.
Total Agricultural Exports:
In the upcoming marketing season of 2023/2024, the total export of plant-based agricultural products from Ukraine has the potential to reach 50 million tons. This is a significant drop compared to the previous season, which witnessed 58 million tons of agricultural goods and raw materials being exported.
Challenges Ahead:
UGA emphasizes that achieving such export volumes in the new season is only possible if Ukraine can export through its Black Sea ports, along with improvements and cost reductions in alternative logistic routes, including the Danube River route. Exporting grain through Ukrainian ports and ensuring maritime safety in the Black Sea is the only way to efficiently supply Ukrainian grain to countries in need.
Favorable Weather Conditions:
The constant improvement in this year's harvest forecast can be largely attributed to the favorable weather conditions that have prevailed. The improved weather has positively impacted the expected yields of key crops across the agricultural landscape.
Wheat Production:
The wheat production estimate for 2023 remains steady at 22 million tons, slightly higher than the 20.2 million tons in 2022, though significantly lower than the record-breaking 33 million tons in 2021. It is estimated that potential wheat exports in the 2023/2024 marketing year could reach 16 million tons, taking into account the beginning-of-season carryover of 4.4 million tons.
Barley and Corn Expectations:
Barley harvest in Ukraine is projected to remain at the previous year's level of 5.8 million tons, with an expected export of 3 million tons. Meanwhile, corn production expectations have improved by 0.8 million tons, reaching 28.8 million tons, which is approximately 1.5 million tons more than the previous year. The potential corn export is estimated at 23 million tons.
Sunflower and Rapeseed Production:
Sunflower production in Ukraine is anticipated to reach 14.2 million tons, compared to the previous year's 11.1 million tons, with a potential export of 0.6 million tons. The volume of sunflower processing for oil is expected to reach 13.2 million tons. Rapeseed harvest is estimated at 4.2 million tons, with a 2023/2024 marketing year export potential of 3.7 million tons. Soybean production is projected at 4.8 million tons, with exports of 3.3 million tons.
Total Agricultural Exports:
In the upcoming marketing season of 2023/2024, the total export of plant-based agricultural products from Ukraine has the potential to reach 50 million tons. This is a significant drop compared to the previous season, which witnessed 58 million tons of agricultural goods and raw materials being exported.
Challenges Ahead:
UGA emphasizes that achieving such export volumes in the new season is only possible if Ukraine can export through its Black Sea ports, along with improvements and cost reductions in alternative logistic routes, including the Danube River route. Exporting grain through Ukrainian ports and ensuring maritime safety in the Black Sea is the only way to efficiently supply Ukrainian grain to countries in need.
