War of attrition: an expert explained why it is worse for the Russian Federation than for Ukraine
Date: 2023-11-06 Author: Кирило Загоруйко Categories: WAR
The Russian-Ukrainian war has entered a phase of attrition, but this does not mean good news for Russia if the West continues to support Ukraine. This opinion was expressed by British defense and security analyst, Professor Michael Clarke for Sky News.
"Attrition in a war means you fight for a long time until one side just falls apart, and then everything happens very quickly. In this particular war, it is more likely that the Russians will fall apart at some point in the next 18 months than Ukraine, if Ukraine continues to be supported,” he said.
At the same time, Professor Clark notes that to win the war of attrition, it is necessary to develop the industrial base and return the “industrial war” to Europe. And this may take several years.
"We never thought we would see this after the end of World War II. But in wars of attrition, the winner is the side that is most able to establish its industry and apply it to the front for a relatively long period," he says.
According to Clark, Ukrainians and Russians understand this and are trying to put their own economy on a “war footing,” but Russia, in his opinion, will not be able to do this fully.
In general, in his opinion, Russia will not be able to implement a large successful offensive until the spring of 2025, but the Ukrainians will still have such an opportunity.
“At the moment there are no prerequisites for favorable negotiations on a ceasefire, because the only thing the Russians agree on is that the Ukrainians must simply give in and admit the loss of all the territory they have lost. (...) The Ukrainians must achieve a better negotiating position,” he believes Clark.
